2026 values and busts in the top 100

Trevor Lawrence is our favorite quarterback to own this year at ADP. He is projected with a statline of 4,453 yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs, 383 rush yards, and 7.2 rushing TDs. This is not a bet on a leap - he posted a strong WORP last year, and the projection is actually conservative against it. We think their offense is going to be top 5 in the NFL based on how they finished the back half of the year, their receiving weapons, and their running game being as consistent as it was to finish the year. Last year he threw downfield as much as anyone in the league (37 percent of attempts traveled 10-plus air yards) and still absorbed a league-high 36 drops, so the passing line has built-in upside if his catch rate normalizes. We think the risk here is actually pretty low in reaching those stats. The main risk is their schedule: a brutal weeks 2 to 7 after playing the Browns in week 1. A near-400-point projection going off the board around pick 117 is the single widest QB gap in the top 100.

Bo Nix has an improved offense and he is headed into his year 3 season, where we often see QBs improve. He is statted for 4,186 passing yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs, 338 rushing yards, and 6 TDs. He led the NFL in pass attempts last year, so the volume floor the late-round-QB thesis depends on is real - the only cap on the projection is efficiency. Denver also added Jaylen Waddle this offseason, a genuine target-share upgrade that supports the step up. Note: we have Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nix with very similar seasons, just one should have a better passing offense. 370 projected points at a low risk grade based on last year, and while his ADP is outside the top 100, he is certainly a buy. A stable QB1 floor that costs almost nothing, which is exactly what the late-round QB strategy is built on.

Drafted at pick 53 but projected as the QB15 with negative WORP and a very high risk flag. The flag is based on injuries: last year he played only 7 games (knee, hamstring, dislocated elbow) and we project he misses time again, pricing him at roughly 63 percent available. His points per game should be a top-8 QB, but when projecting injury (which is dangerous, we know), the full-year totals become concerning and the price gets hard to justify. The rushing upside is real - a 31 percent rush-attempt share and 671 projected rush yards - but at this cost the model would rather stream the position.

Not a high pick by ADP, but the structure is the problem. We project 3,969 yards and roughly 35 TDs, but essentially zero rushing - 59 rush yards and 0 rush TDs - so he gets none of the rushing-QB premium that props up the top tier. A pure-pocket passer carries all of his value in passing volume, and our availability flag (around 65 percent) says we expect some missed time, which craters the season total with no rushing floor to cushion it. The risk on this projection is high and we could be dead wrong: if he stays healthy for a full 17, he easily lives up to his ADP. We just think the missed-time math is the tax here.

Our model has him as a top-12 back going around pick 55. Why? He was a menace running before he got hurt, we expect the Browns to be one of the biggest positive regressions in offensive TDs, and his only real competition is Dylan Sampson. As a rookie roughly 90 percent of his yards came after contact and he faced the highest stacked-box rate in the NFL, so his surface YPC understates the talent - he was fourth in the league in rushing yards over expected. His projected statline: 1,282 rushing yards, 10 rushing TDs, 34 receptions, 247 receiving yards, and 3 receiving TDs, on a jump to a 57 percent rush-attempt share. The 82 percent availability grade already accounts for the December ankle surgery. Strongly positive WORP and a fifth-round price for borderline RB1 production is the kind of gap that wins drafts.

This one is scary to project, but our model loves Swift. He has always been a 1,000-yard player and last year was great for efficiency - an elite PFF rushing grade and near the top of the league in rushing EPA in Ben Johnson's scheme. He has competition with Kyle Monangai that could decimate this projection; the one place to push back is the 47 percent rush-attempt share, since Monangai trended toward a larger committee role late last year. He is projected for 1,158 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 38 receptions, and 2 receiving TDs, while Monangai ranks as RB26 with 974 rushing yards and 6 TDs, so this is a high-powered offense. Swift graded as the strongest durability mark among our RB values - low risk, positive WORP, drafted outside the top 60.

Read this one carefully: Barkley still grades as a strongly positive-WORP player. This is not the model disliking him - it is purely a value-vs-ADP call. A pick-16 ADP against a model rank of 48 is a steep tax. His efficiency regressed hard from the 2,005-yard 2024 to roughly league-average, and we have his rush-attempt share dropping a touch on top of that, so the model sees slightly reduced volume on average per-carry numbers. We see Barkley's challenges remaining the same year over year - he'll be a good player, just not worth the ADP he's currently at. You are paying first-round price for production the model sees in the third. Good player, bad value at cost.

A more precise read than a flat fade: the projection is marginally positive, so this is a barely-above-replacement, overpriced-on-availability bust rather than a replacement-level one. We're seriously concerned about two things: the vibes about his injury and the addition of Kenneth Gainwell. Last year was disrupted by foot and shoulder injuries (3-plus games missed, a multi-week shutdown into the bye), and the 74 percent availability grade is the crux - a sub-200-pound back with a documented injury cluster, drafted at a price that assumes health. Drafted at 53, projected as RB24 even with a rising rush share lifting his stat line to 806 rushing yards and 6 TDs. The model isn't calling him bad; it's calling him fragile and overpriced.

A genuinely low-risk WR1 projection at a fourth-round ADP, and the availability backs it - 17, 17, and 16 games over three seasons, the best durability profile on this whole list. He is the undisputed No. 1 in Baltimore with no major target competition added, so his projected target share is secure with Lamar Jackson, and last year was a career best for efficiency. Positive WORP, top-10 positional rank, and one of the few receivers in this tier the model likes more than the market does. The only ceiling cap is historically modest red-zone usage.

Waddle is now in Denver, tied to Bo Nix's league-leading attempt volume, and the model projects a real jump from last year. A 265-point full PPR projection going around pick 62 - the model sees a back-end WR1; the room drafts him as a WR3. His projected target share in Denver sits below his late-2025 Miami peak, which is sensible given competition from Sutton and the rest of the room, and we apply about a 14 percent discount for missed-time risk - already handled, not an open flag. Reliable target share at a discount.

Wildly overpriced, not bad - that is exactly what the numbers say. A pick-11 ADP against a model rank of 52 is the widest elite-receiver gap on the board, and WORP is positive but modest, far below an alpha WR1. Last year was his quietest since his rookie season; George Pickens (93-1,423-9) took target dominance and TD equity, capping the ceiling, and his availability dipped to 13 of 17. The model is not calling him bad, it is calling him wildly overpriced - you're paying for the 2023-24 alpha the offense no longer supports.

This is a medical bet, not a usage bust. Nabers tore his ACL early last year, and the projection sits at essentially replacement level. The talent ceiling is enormous - a 22 percent target share and 1,143 projected yards reflect WR1 usage if healthy - but this carries the highest injury-risk and lowest-availability marks on the board, around 48 percent available, so the model is roughly halving expectations (about a 52 percent discount). Drafted late second round, projected as WR24. At this ADP you are buying an ACL-recovery bet priced like a sure thing.

The highest-WORP value in this whole list, projected as the TE2 but drafted around pick 111. Before a torn ACL ended his season after 8 games he was on pace for roughly 1,187 yards and 15 TDs - elite-TE trajectory - and he led all NFL tight ends in yards-after-catch per reception. The risk is the ACL, full stop, which is why the availability grade sits around 64 percent and the risk is very high. But if the pre-injury role returns this is a league-winner at a throwaway cost.

A top-five tight end by the model, sliding to an ADP of 154. WORP this high at a position this thin is enormous. He is the clear No. 2 target in a high-value Buffalo passing game, the room wasn't reinforced, and a Pro Bowl nod signals the talent is intact. The risk grade is high - we apply about a 27 percent discount for the recurring soft-tissue and knee issues, putting him around 73 percent available - but the price is effectively free for genuine TE1 upside.

A nuance worth flagging, and this is a value bust, not a production warning: McBride has elite WORP and the model still loves him. Last year was a monster, high-volume season - second among TEs in PFF receiving grade with about one drop all year and WR1-level target volume - and we even pull the projection back slightly for mild regression off that career year. He is rock solid on availability. He is a genuinely great player. But a pick-21 ADP means you pay near-elite-WR cost for him, which is why the value gap is negative even though the talent is not.

A genuine production bust: drafted as a clear starter, projected as the TE16 with negative WORP. His efficiency actually held up (fourth among TEs in PFF receiving grade, zero drops), so this is an opportunity problem, not an ability one - Detroit's crowded, run-leaning, multi-weapon offense simply doesn't funnel enough targets his way to support TE1 value. The model sees replacement-level production at a price that assumes a return to his rookie ceiling.